Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary: January 2025

Friday, January 24, 2025

SPX: What's In Store From 2025 To 2029?

On December 29, 2019, I posted this article on the SPX which analyzed its history from 1932, and which presented a long-view forecast of what's in store for the 2020s and 2030s.

Overall, it showed that, for the most part, the SPX has been a strong BUY candidate for longer-term investors over an average of 30 years running, and that it was likely to be repeated for another 10-20 years, generally speaking, based on the following chart (each candle represents a period of one year).

SPX Yearly chart

As can be seen on the following current monthly chart, price dropped a bit from that date before it began to rise, break above the long-term channel and rise again, then drop and retest the breakout level, before, finally, proceeding to form a new and steeper channel and upward trend (defined by an Andrew's Pitchfork technical drawing).

In keeping with the above-referenced bullish outlook for the 2020s, I'd expect to see the SPX trading around one of two possible levels by the end of President Trump's second term (January 20, 2029)...barring any catastrophic events, of course:

9,500 at the upper edge of the lower 1/4 of the channel, or
11,000 at the upper edge of entire channel

So, we'll see what happens...and, as I explained in the above-referenced post, as long as the Technology Sector remains strong until then, one of those two scenarios is a very real possibility.

SPX Monthly chart

Thursday, January 23, 2025

SOFTBANK: Boom Or Bust?

In 2022, I posted several articles on SoftBank's (SFTBY) reckless business investments and failures, which can be found at this link.

I'm not convinced that their new AI partnership with "Stargate" members will prove to be any more profitable for them than those, which were not...or that their investment will be any more wise than the others, which were not.

Time will tell.

Source: ZeroHedge

This venture may be SoftBank's biggest black hole investment yet..."no clear goal, no timeline, and no real way to measure it" also means no transparency...buyer beware.

Source: Slope of Hope

Overlayed on the following monthly chart of SFTBY are a number of technical drawings depicting a long-range rising channel, a "chaos zone," and a "froth zone."

The current price is currently trading in the upper portion of the "froth zone" and is at the top of the channel.

Failure of price to rise and hold above the upper levels of the "froth zone" and channel at 35.00 could see some volatile swings in either direction within this zone, until it becomes clearer to investors as to the viability and sustainability of SoftBank's latest capital venture, described above.