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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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Cat Latte

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

***2025***
* Wed. May 7 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Saturday, April 05, 2025

SPX TARIFF FALLOUT: Where Does It Go From Here?

I've recently written about President Trump's global tariff war, and its effects on U.S. and global markets, here and here.

Today's article will focus primarily on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and what may lie ahead for its potential targets.

The following weekly SPX chart contains two Fibonacci retracement drawings...one taken from the week of the March 23, 2020 low of 2191.86 and the other from the week of the October 10, 2022 low of 3491.58, both to the all-time high of 6147.43 from the week of February 17, 2025.

I'm mainly interested in where their respective levels overlap or are fairly close, generally speaking, following its dramatic price drop in the past several weeks, which may determine price targets, as well as support/resistance levels, in the coming days/weeks.

Price is currently sitting below a confluence of two levels around 5130 and 5200. The next confluence levels lie from approximately 4500 to 4630 and 4800. Further below, the next ones sit around 4050 to 4170.

These areas of confluence represent upside and downside targets.

Weekly SPX chart

The following daily SPX:VIX Ratio chart may help to provide clues relative to support and resistance levels.

The ratio price is nearing a previous Bull/Bear Line-in-Sand level of 100, after plunging below its current level of 150.

A drop to 100 (or overshoot it a bit) may coincide with a price drop of the SPX to around 4800, or so.

Should the ratio continue its slide towards the 60 historical/critical Bull/Bear Line-in-Sand level, we may see the SPX plunge towards the lower confluence levels from 4050 to 4170.

The question, of course, is timing, as to how quickly or likely such scenarios may play out. That is up in the air and depends on momentum and external factors, such as economic conditions, monetary policy, financial policy and conditions, and political, business and consumer influence/pressure.

At the moment, the 50 and 200 MAs are currently under the influence of a bearish Death Cross on the SPX/VIX ratio...so, until they reverse, the bears are in control of price action.

Daily SPX:VIX Ratio chart

Year-to-date percentages gained/lost by the U.S. Major Indices are shown on the following graph.

Nasdaq Indices have been hit the hardest, followed by Small Caps, then S&P 500 and 100, and, finally, Dow Indices.

U.S. Major Indices
Percentages Gained/Lost YTD

U.S. Major Indices

Year-to-date percentages gained/lost by the U.S. Major Sectors are shown on the following graph.

Technology is the biggest loser, followed by Consumer Discretionary, Biotech, Home Builders, Industrials, Financials, Energy, Materials, Health Care, and Utilities. Consumer Staples gained 0.34%.

U.S. Major Sectors
Percentages Gained/Lost YTD

U.S. Major Sectors

Keep an eye on Technology and Consumer Discretionary for signs of a slowdown or pause, which may cause markets, in general, to follow suit.

With respect to the Consumer Discretionary sector, keep an eye on the Kraneshares Global Luxury Index ETF (KLXY).

It's fallen 15.63% below its IPO price, as shown on the following weekly charts

Further weakness in this ETF could spell further trouble for U.S. markets, in general.

KLXY Weekly chart

KLXY Weekly % chart

All in all, markets are currently very weak, with Fed Chair J. Powell signalling this past week that economic conditions are weakening and inflation is on the rise.

Should President Trump fail to reverse course on ALL of his excessively punitive and damaging tariffs on countries around the world, we may see stagflation rear its ugly head in the U.S. -- and the SPX drop to around 4050 -- sooner rather than later (with daily plunges in global markets, like this past Friday's, as shown below)...before we see capitulation and reversal in U.S. markets.

N.B. In any event, what country's leader would trust him ever again to negotiate any kind of new trade agreement in good faith (and honour them), inasmuch as he just blew up all of them with these tariffs...and could do so again, on a whim? 👀

Global Markets April 4, 2025

FINALLY, I'd just mention that the U.S. MOVE Index (which measures the level of volatility in Treasury futures) has not yet spiked to historical highs, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Should that continue rising, look for stocks to continue to drop.

MOVE Index Monthly chart

So, buckle up!


Tuesday, February 25, 2025

U.S. BANK BUBBLE AHEAD?

Working on it...








Just sayin'...😏

* UPDATE March 6...

The Trump economic effect on the U.S. stock market: HINT...Destructive, so far.

All gains for 2025 in the Major Averages have been wiped out and they're now under water for the year. 👀

TRUMP: Tariffs are on...oh, wait, they're paused for one month...then one month later, they're on again...no, now they're paused temporarily for another month! 🤢

He may love tariffs and jerking foreign allies around, but it's clear that markets do NOT

More details on tariffs can be read in this ZeroHedge article...and, now, on auto loan defaults, as outlined here...as well as, Trump's possible intention to push the U.S. into a recession via DOGE cuts (and other measures) while blaming it on the remaining effects of "Bidenomics," as described here. BUT, that plan could backfire and recession could degrade into stagflation, instead, so it may not be so smart after all! 👀

In any event, volatility has ramped up in both directions and will likely continue for the foreseeable future, since who, especially foreign and domestic investors and business owners, as well as American consumers, can trust anything President Trump says anymore relative to this topic!

U.S. Major Indices
% Gained/Lost Year-to-Date 2025

U.S. Major Indices
% Gained/Lost Past One Month

U.S. Major Indices
% Gained/Lost Past Week


* UPDATE March 10...

A sea of red in world markets, so far, today...

How they ended the day...🔻...more details and what's ahead here.

* UPDATE March 11...

President Trump is continuing with his greedy economic cannibalization of Canada by imposing additional tariffs in his maniacal trade war, as detailed in this article.

At the same time, he is threatening the national security of his own United States by decimating the flow of crucial goods to and from Canada, its most stable, reliable and long-time trading partner in the world!

WHY??? 👀

How markets are responding, so far, today...🔻

How they ended the day...🔻

The following noteworthy economic data reports are being released this week, as well as the next FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday March 19, which may also have an influencial impact on markets.







N.B. By the way, there's no point in reporting any further on the day-to-day drama caused by Trump's erratic decisions on tariffs and trade, since it's anyone's guess how long that ugly scenario will continue...potentially, for the next four years! 👀

However, the preceding simply illustrates how unhinged from reality they are...and how detrimental they are for the already-weakening U.S. banking sector, as well as the stock market, in general.

Just where the bottom of these markets lie is anyone's guess...possibly at the point when the President eliminates his destabilizing global tariffs and stops his unjustifiable trade war.

P.S. On that note, it is amazing that President Trump continues to, not only lay bare for all to see, but to amplify his total ignorance of world trade practices and agreements (including the existing tri-lateral USMCA trade agreement that he negotiated and signed with Canada and Mexico on November 30, 2018, which replaced the former NAFTA trade agreement), as highlighted in this article

So, it's HIS own trade deal, about which he once bragged as being the "best trade deal ever made," that he now says is crap and unjust toward the U.S.!

Perhaps he is suffering from some form of dementia and/or schizophrenia?...because his rhetoric, threats and outbursts are completely nonsensical, unstable, unpredictable, ever-changing from moment to moment, as well as, unprofessional, and his accusations are false

In a nutshell, his 'modus operandi' is thus: He'll flatter you one moment to soften you up and disarm/distract you, then turn around and, figuratively, stab you in the back the next! 👀

Who could ever trust someone like that? 😕

U.S. Bank/Financial ETFs
% Gained/Lost Past One Month

U.S. Major Sectors
% Gained/Lost Past One Month

BUCKLE UP! 🤢

* UPDATE April 3...

Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse, they did...today was a bloodbath in global markets, following President Trump's unveiling of sweeping so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on countries around the globe yesterday (which he dubbed as "liberation day"). Some of those countries are occupied only by penguins! 😏

The stunning fallout is detailed below...as you can see from the graphics, investors were "liberated" from more of their money, with U.S. markets losing $3 Trillion in value since Trump took office on January 20th.

We'll see how long market makers put up with his nonsense. 👀







Major Global Market Indices
% Gained/Lost Past One Week

Major Global Market Indices
% Gained/Lost Past One Month

N.B. More information on U.S. markets here.