Perhaps this CBS news reporter's prediction of a 'Black Swan Event' for 2024 is not so far off...either when it comes to U.S. national security, or in the stock markets...especially when one considers the reluctance of traders/investors to convincingly push markets above the December 2021 high for the past two years, as shown on the following monthly S&P 500 Index (SPX) chart.
Perhaps such reluctance stems from Joe Biden's epic multiple failures as a leader since he became President in January of 2021, about which I've written extensively...some of these include:
- U.S. national security issues and wide-open southern border
- "Bidenomics"
- U.S. national debt explosion
- inflation
- credit risk
- ESG and climate mandates
- foreign policy and multiple global wars which have broken out during his presidency
- a Congressional Impeachment Inquiry currently underway
- mandatory COVID lockdowns and vaccinations
- Afghanistan
- Ukraine/Russia war
- China
- Iran
- Israel
- political pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates
- the risk of an over-extended investment cycle
- pressure on U.S. banks and regional bank failures
- volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets due to Biden's war on fossil fuels
CONCLUSIONS:
As I hypothesized in my 2023 Market Forecast, and, as long as Joe Biden remains President, I think we'll see more whipsaw, volatile moves occur in all markets in 2024, until such a 'Black Swan event' does occur...particularly since it's a presidential election year and each one has become more contentious and controversial.
Furthermore, this article highlights the extreme importance of this election, inasmuch as global instability is at stake.
N.B. By the way, add to this, the damning Special Counsel's conclusions and report (released to the public on February 8, 2024) -- where he highlighted President Biden's mental unfitness to stand trial for his willful and unlawful retention and disclosure of classified materials when he was a private citizen during his post Vice-Presidency -- and you have a recipe for a global disaster as long as he remains President.
Any push to new highs may be met with a swift retreat to new lows...possibly to retest 3200, or lower.
HAPPY NEW YEAR AND BEST OF LUCK IN 2024!
* UPDATE March 21, 2024...
It seems like market players have refused to entirely release their grip, so far, on the 'greed' and 'delusion' segment of the Perpetual Stock Market Cycle, as noted in the following monthly comparison chart of the SPX and BITCOIN.
Keep an eye on the near-vertical rise of both of these...which one will topple first?
N.B. Even politically-centrist Elon Musk's views are now accused of being right-wing by these extreme far-left Democrats, as described in this article...common sense is foreign to them.
And, the (sensible) meek shall regain control...eventually...
P.S. For more examples of potential Black Swan events, check out my article here.
