Check out the following two long-range monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index (SPX).
With the current Federal Reserve Interest Rate still only at 3-3.25%, and the SPX still 395% above its 2009 low, it seems to me that there is still a lot of room for more rate hikes to tame inflation, which may bring price down to around 3200 -- its first major support level -- or even lower.
That would blow off the excess parabolic froth that was created in this market from mid-2020 and bring equities more in line with actual economic and global supply-chain conditions.
Until we see the SPX:VIX ratio fall to somewhere around 80.00 or, more likely, 60.00, I don't think we're close to an equity capitulation yet.
So, look for more rate hikes ahead and more SPX weakness...which is in line with my conclusions in my post of September 24.
P.S. The SPX closed the day, month, Q3 and YTD much lower and just a breath above its low of the day, month, Q3, and YTD...at 3585.62.
