U.S. Bonds Inching Upwards

* See UPDATE below...

U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.

Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 "New Bull Market" level.

I anticipate that we'll likely see one last-gasp push in equities (SPX and other major indices) to, possibly a slightly higher all-time high, before we see a meaningful pullback/correction. Under that scenario, look for the SPX:VIX to break and hold above 200 and, potentially, retest the 280 all-time ratio high.

However, if the SPX:VIX fails to break and hold above 200 on an SPX rally, then I'd anticipate that we won't see a retest of the prior SPX high set in September 2018, but a fizzle before then, instead.

Either way, I anticipate that bonds will continue to gain ground...albeit perhaps slowly, but steadily.

Of note, is this astute observation from Slope of Hope's, Tim Knight...

Source: SlopeOfHope.com

I anticipate that a recession is on the way, if not this year, then likely next year...but likely slowing this year. I understand that Europe, China, Canada, and others are all slowing now. Watch the bond markets for clues and continued strength!

* UPDATE March 26...

Now this report from Investing.com...

Source: Investing.com

Asian Markets Falter...China's Shanghai Index At Major Resistance

Judging by one-day percentages lost, Monday's market action was a bad day for Asian markets, as shown below.

China's Shanghai Index is facing long-term major resistance at current levels, as shown on the following weekly chart of SSEC.

I've shown the input values of the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators as one period. They're both still below the zero level and have, in fact, been declining on recent attempts to move higher during March.

If price breaks and holds above, say, 3150,  I'd like to see both of these indicators also break and hold above zero, while making new highs, as well, to confirm the sustainability of any further meaningful advancement beyond that price.

Otherwise, look for this index to retest its last weekly swing low, or plunge lower, inasmuch as its stability at current levels is questionable.

And...now this...

Source: ZeroHedge.com

From This Week's "Smile File"...Chaos Theory

A bit of humour for the weekend...

Media & Americans Duped! A Criminal Dud!

The following is presented without prejudice.

* See UPDATES below...

Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of alleged Russia-Trump campaign collusion has been concluded, as advised by Attorney General William Barr on Friday, my observations on what's been uncovered (in a nutshell) in that respect, are as follows.

What started out as political opposition research of Donald Trump and his political campaign in 2015/2016 by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and which was funnelled into the Obama State Department, DOJ and FBI, et al, through multiple sources and turned into a counter-intelligence investigation and subsequent Special Counsel investigation in search of criminal activities and leaked to multiple media outlets in order to, firstly, smear Trump and his chances of being elected as U.S. President, then, to hamstring his presidency, once elected, was, three years later, finally exposed for exactly what it was...a political vendetta and smear campaign and not a criminal matter.

Oppo Research ⇒ Criminal Investigation ⇒ Political Vendetta ⇒ Duped ⇒ Dud!

More on this entire process will be revealed by the U.S. Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, once he completes his separate ongoing internal investigation of numerous DOJ and FBI officials (and any others), which may be released in the next three months, or so.

So, this unabashed, unrelenting three-year political and media anti-Trump smear campaign and legal probe (which was based on salacious and unverified material, according to former FBI Director, James Comey) may end up producing unwanted consequences for the perpetrators involved in this entire complex process...and there could be many people exposed in this scheme. Whether any will be criminally indicted and prosecuted by current DOJ officials remains to be seen. No doubt, there will be much new information to come in the days/weeks ahead, in this regard.

I wonder what damage (not only on domestic matters, but also foreign policy issues) has already been inflicted on the President's ability to properly and fully discharge his duties to the American public, as he was duly elected and sworn in to carry out, because of this smear campaign. Meanwhile, the political chess game will likely continue through to 2020 and beyond, if President Trump is re-elected. At what point do endless and aimless political investigations become political harassment and constitutional overreach?

♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟

Source: WSJ.com

Source: FoxNews.com (click link to view video)

Source: NationalReview.com

Source: TheHill.com

✵✵✵✵✵✵✵

Source: FoxNews.com...to view video, click here

* UPDATE March 24...

Attorney General Barr's 4-page summary letter (below) of Special Counsel Mueller's report was released today (the yellow highlight on page 1 is mine)...of note, are the following excerpts...

"...the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign."

"...Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel's investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense. Our determination was made without regard to, and is not based on, the constitutional considerations that surround the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting president."

Several reactions are as follows...