THE LONG VIEW INTO THE FUTURE...
Each candle on the following chart of the
SPX represents a period of
one year.
From
1932 to 1972, it, essentially, rallied for
40 years, particularly for the
latter 30 years. From
1974 to 2000, its bull run lasted for
26 years. For the
past 10 years, it's also been in a
strong bull market.
Very simply, history shows that, for the most part, the
SPX has been a
strong (BUY) candidate for
longer-term investors over an
average of 30 years running, and that is
likely to be repeated for
another 10-20 years, generally speaking.
As I write this post on December 28 (with only 2 trading days left in 2019), the following
monthly chart of the
SPX shows that it has
gained 340% from its March 2009 lows.
The
Balance of Power is currently under the control of
buyers and has yet to match prior highs...hinting of
further upside potential for 2020.
Furthermore, if the
2020s are as strong as the
2010s, look for a
similar percentage gain through to 2030...and,
possibly again to 2040...before we eventually see a
meaningful pullback/consolidation for, perhaps, 10 years through to
2050.
As long as the
Technology Sector (
Nasdaq Composite Index) remains strong
through 2020, as I wrote in
my post of December 26, no doubt that will bode well for the
SPX.
The following
monthly chart shows a
gain of 554% for the past 10 years. The gains in the tech sector have
outpaced the U.S. markets, in general. That is likely to continue and, possibly,
strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years as innovation accelerates...
buoying the rest of the markets, in turn...one to watch!
N.B. By the way, the
SPX managed to
hit my Q4 target of 3233 by the end of this year, as I forecast in
my post of September 29...(the monthly chart below is from that post).
P.S. So, as I asked in
my post of December 24 [one-day
$34.4 Billion U.S. retail sales and
$17 Trillion global market gains (
21.68%) this year],
"What's not to like, Joe?"
 |
| Happy New Year! |
* UPDATE Feb. 5, 2023...
From the date this article was posted, the SPX rallied another 1,600 points to a high of 4817.88 by January 2022, as shown on the following monthly chart.
It, subsequently, pulled back to a low of 3490 by October 2022 and has rallied somewhat to 4136.48.
The monthly timeframe is still in a technical downtrend and price action during 2022 has been very choppy and volatile, producing very large daily, weekly and monthly swings.
I analyzed a number of markets in my 2023 Market Forecast and came to the following conclusions...
So, where the
SPX goes from here, is anybody's guess...for now...but, I have a feeling that the
volatility, choppiness, and large-scale swings have not yet disappeared.
And, with Joe Biden as the current President (since January 2021), I'm sure that those conditions will persist for, at least, the rest of 2023...and, possibly, until the end of his first term in January 2025.
And, as I concluded in my aforementioned forecast, the SPX may drop to 3200, or lower, either before the end of this year, or by the end of Biden's first term...BEFORE we see the SPX resume its historical BULL RUN into the end of the 2020s and 2030s.
