Beige Book Report: Current Conditions Do Not Support Dec/16 Rate Hike

This summary of today's release of the FOMC Beige Book Report (courtesy of Nasdaq.com) is hinting that current soft economic conditions may not be supportive of an FOMC rate hike in December.

We'll see what current (and any anticipatory) factors may have been considered that would warrant a rate hike, if one is, in fact, implemented...hopefully, they will be clearly spelled out in Ms. Yellen's 2:30 pm press conference that will follow the Fed's rate announcement on December 14th.

SPX Outlook to 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

* See UPDATE below...

I've written about the SPX:VIX ratio many times in the past. I've mentioned, as recently as November 13th, that it will be necessary for the bulls to hold price on this ratio above the 150 level in order for SPX equities to continue their rally with little volatility to impede this rise.

This post will take a look at one possible scenario that could see the SPX reaching a price of 2700, or so, by 2019, in anticipation of the next U.S. Presidential election in 2020.

As shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below, price has rallied this month from the "median" of a long-term regression channel (which begins at the lows of 2009), and has broken out to all-time highs (above an almost two-year consolidation/congestion level) since Donald Trump was elected as President on December 8th.

It looks poised to continue this advance in a manner similar to that which occurred after Barack Obama was re-elected as President in November of 2012. If it did continue on that trajectory and at that velocity, we could see price reach the "+2 standard deviation level" on this channel at 2700 by November-December 2018. After such an advance, price could very pull back to around the "-1 standard deviation level" to around 2370, then bounce back to 2700 by the next election in November 2020.

Of course, that hypothetical scenario would depend on a lot of factors -- especially whether President-elect Trump's ambitious economic/tax/fiscal agenda can be supported by Congress and implemented, together with whatever future monetary policy measures may be enacted of the Fed -- to merit such an exuberant advance in equities.

Monthly SPX

As can be noted on the following Daily, Weekly, and Yearly (each candle represents a period of one year) ratio charts of SPX:VIX, it will be critical that bulls hold price above the 150 level, which is defined as a major support level, not only by price action, but also by the daily and weekly 50 and 200 moving averages.

The RSI, MACD and PMO indicators are hinting of further short-term strength in the SPX on the Daily timeframe, and crossovers are either imminent or have just occurred on the MACD and PMO on the Weekly timeframe, with an RSI holding above 50, also hinting of medium-term strength.

Price action on the Yearly timeframe is, currently, extremely bullish for the SPX (a massive bullish engulfing candle is forming), and, depending on its close at the end of this year, it may forecast whether the hypothetical longer-term scenario that I've described above is realistic and has begun.

Daily SPX:VIX Ratio

Weekly SPX:VIX Ratio

Yearly SPX:VIX Ratio

CONCLUSIONS

We'll see whether a Santa rally is currently in play...or whether a lump of coal surprises the markets this year. These charts are worth monitoring as part of your crystal ball-gazing activities -- in the short, medium and longer terms -- leading up to the next Presidential election.








* UPDATE January 17, 2018...

The S&P 500 Index reached, and closed above, 2700 on January 3, 2018 (nearly 3 years ahead of what I had forecast), as shown on the following Daily chart.

It has since surpassed this 2020 election target by over 100 points, already, pointing to a very aggressive bull market since the November 8, 2016 election (663 points gained since then)!

Obviously, my crystal ball needs an upgrade...👀

The Plight of the World Market Index

As can be seen on the following Daily chart of the World Market Index, price has fallen below both the 50 and 200 MAs and is, once again, nearing a critical major support level of 1600.

Even though price is trading under the bullish influences of a moving average Golden Cross, all three technical indicators are hinting of further weakness to come.

Watch for a bullish cross-over of the MACD and PMO indicators, as well as a price reversal and bounce, break and hold, firstly, above 1700, then above 1750, as a potential signal of clear support of higher prices for world equities, in the longer term, including that of the SPX.

Conversely, a break and hold below 1600 could very well forecast a large downdraft for all world equities in the near term.

China's Shanghai Index: Its Role in World Markets in 2016

I last wrote about China's Shanghai Index (as part of a comprehensive review of major world markets) on January 29th. Since then, and, until June, the road to recovery from its lows of the year has been volatile and rocky. The last half of this year has seen a fairly steady, if choppy, advance to its current level just below its next resistance level of 3250, as shown on the following Daily chart.

In that post, I had mentioned that a rally to (and hold above) 3000 could thwart a major downdraft, as was being threatened by an imminent break of a neckline of a massive Head & Shoulders formation.

A break and hold above 3250 could see price continue to rally to its next resistance level around 3400-3500. This index is trading under the bullish influences of a moving average Golden Cross, so a break and hold above 3250 is critical to continued success of further advance; otherwise, a drop and hold below that level could very well see a major bear attack ensue, sending price to new lows of around 2500, or more.

In my above-mentioned post, I also made the following conclusion (relative to world markets):
     "In particular, watch Japan, China, Brazil, the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 Indices for committed leadership..." related to any real success or failure of the S&P 500 Index and equities, in general.

As noted on the following 1-year Daily charts of these indices, they've all risen above major consolidation/congestion levels this year, with the exception of the Nasdaq 100...the one to watch, along with the Shanghai Index, to see whether their movements (either strength or weakness) influence, or have an impact on, the other indices in the days and weeks ahead.

The Rocky Road of the SPX:VIX Ratio

Well, since my last post on the SPX:VIX ratio, we find that, after true-to-form recent volatility in between 150 and below 100 to just above 90, it has, once again, spiked upward, broken and closed above 150, as shown on the following Monthly ratio chart.

The Momentum indicator has rallied and is, again, back above the zero level, which now favours the bulls on this longer term timeframe.

As I've said many times over the past several years, a hold above 150 clearly favours equity bulls. Watch for an SPX breakout to new all-time highs in the near term (last new high is 2193.81).

For confirmation of such a move, keep an eye on whether the MACD and PMO indicators (which have both just crossed over to the upside), as well as the RSI indicator, break their respective downtrends, as shown on the following SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart.

No doubt, markets are likely buoyed by more unity in all three U.S. Washington political houses subsequent to the Trump/Republican win last week. While traders will pay attention to the future policies, implementation, and effects of those policies, this ratio should provide a good gauge of market sentiment and momentum conviction, as well as the strength and velocity of volatility.

World Market Outlook Post-Trump Win

This post will look at where "outliers" are sitting in a variety of world markets, as of the close of the week that saw Donald Trump win the race for U.S. President (those instruments sitting at relatively high or low price levels compared with their respective counterparts and in relation to major support/resistance levels).

They will be shown on the following 1-year Daily charts, Year-to-date gains/losses comparison graphs, and several 5-Year Ratio charts, and will be grouped in the following 10 categories:

• Major U.S. Indices
• 9 Major Sectors + Homebuilders
• Major European Indices
• Emerging Market & BRIC ETFs + BRIC Indices
• Canada, Japan, UK, Australia + World Market Index
• Commodities + US $ + US Bonds
• Major Currencies
• SPX vs World Market Index
• Financial ETFs vs U.S., European & Chinese Major Indices
• Retail ETF vs SPX

R.I.P. Leonard Cohen

R.I.P. Leonard Cohen, Canadian Recording Artist ~~ September 21, 1934 - November 7, 2016

The Bubble No One Talks About

What is it?  The MEDIA BUBBLE!

Seriously, who has time to check out all available sources of news these days? And, where do you start? Who do you trust for fair and accurate information?

Middle-class working folks are too busy trying to earn a living and create a healthy and balanced life for their families to worry about who is saying what and try to figure out who's relaying true facts.

Reality tells me that the only ones who wade through endless scores of tabloid stories are those who work in the media industry.

Like the Baby Boomers who are busy downsizing and simplifying their lives to determine what really matters, it's time the media did the same.

As a boomer myself, I've learned that, with age, comes a realization that focusing on what's truly important to me, in the short term (today) and longer term (the big picture), and trusting my own instincts, helps me ensure that decisions I make are in alignment with my intentions and values and how well I'm actually honouring those values. And, to help me downsize (physically, emotionally, socially and psychologically), it's been very important to accept, appreciate, learn from, and let go of the past, and then move forward with faith in my abilities to handle what's in front of me...that's where my energies are optimally and most valuably utilized.

By the way, this approach can be very helpful in trading the markets, as well...successfully and confidently moving from one completed trade to the next new one.

Admittedly, there are, however, some bubbles that are rather enjoyable...






* UPDATE July 29, 2019...

It looks like the liberal media has not moved on from, or even accepted, the results of the 2016 Presidential election. The two most overused words since then have been "racist" and "impeachment"...referring, of course, to President Trump.

And, it hasn't changed since the recent finalization of the Special Counsel investigation into Russian meddling and purported Trump-Russia collusion, which showed the absence of any crime by Trump or anyone associated with his campaign. In fact, the media has stepped up their attacks on the President and have increased their use of those two words since then, and you'd think he had committed a crime(s).

Aren't Americans getting tired of such inflammatory, patently biased and divisive rhetoric? When will the media (journalists) return to simply reporting facts and actual news, without delivering it with a politically-biased slant or interjecting their own views and demands? They sound more like lobbyists and activists instead of self-proclaimed journalists.

* UPDATE Aug. 22, 2022...

Perhaps liberal media outlets like CNN are finally getting the message...we'll see...

Source: ZeroHedge

Congratulations, President-Elect Donald J. Trump!

Donald Trump is elected 45th President of the United States of America
November 8, 2016

Congratulations, President-elect Donald J. Trump! 

I wish you much success in crafting and enacting win-win solutions for both domestic and foreign issues and affairs, which will enable the unification of ideas and people around the world.

May peace be with you and with everyone.

Gold on Track to 1400

GOLD closed just above 1300 and the 50 MA for a second day in a row, as shown on the following Daily chart. The RSI and MACD downtrends have now been broken to the upside.

The next major resistance level is around 1400. I'd watch to see if the PMO indicator crosses and holds back above zero to see whether such a rally, or continued rally beyond that level, has legs.

In fact, there is thin volume above 1400, as depicted by the pink Volume Profile along the right-hand side of the Weekly chart below, so you could see a price surge above 1400 to, potentially, 1500, which is the next major resistance level. Watch for a Golden Cross of the 50 MA back above the 200 MA on this timeframe to confirm such a surge.

GOLD Daily chart

GOLD Weekly chart

Russell 2000 Dead Cat Bounce?

I'd keep a close eye on the Russell 2000 Index to see whether it continues its recent downward plunge below its (now-broken) support and influences the other three Major Indices to follow suit.

The following Year-to-date comparison chart of percentage gains/losses shows that the RUT has lost the most recently (because of its prior double-top spike to 11%), but that all four Major Indices are roughly even in percentage gains now for the year...we'll see if that was just a dead cat bounce and whether the SPX:VIX ratio does plunge below the 100 level, as I mentioned here.

Day of Reckoning Approaches

As the SPX:VIX ratio approaches the 100 level, once more, it's time for equity market participants to take a stance one way or the other.

A drop and hold below 100 will indicate that bears are taking firm control and threaten to take the market down, while a rebound and break and hold back above 150 will indicate that bulls are committing fresh monies into equities. The Momentum indicator has dropped below zero again on the monthly timeframe, indicating that bears are currently in control of the SPX.

MONTHLY CHART SPX:VIX RATIO