On Vacation

As of today, I'm on vacation for one to two weeks, so no posts until then. Best of luck with your trading in the meantime!

Gold Rush or Dump?

A break & hold below 1270/60 on Gold could send it tumbling (quite hard this time) to 1150 or lower (ultimately 1000).

1314 is the near-term resistance level to overcome before running into major resistance at 1550, in my opinion, (based on my analysis of price, Fibonacci, channel, and volume profile data), as shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below.

Where Has Money Been Invested This Year?

See for yourself...

The following Year-To-Date percentage gained/lost graphs of World Markets are presented without individual comment.  A general observation is that money has begun to flow into non-U.S. markets. I'd also add that fund managers will likely be looking to top up their accounts for January's month-end...as such, we may not see new trends emerge until February.

Possible Bounce in Store for Euro

Further to my recent posts here and here, the EUR/USD Forex pair has reached a potential (double Fibonacci) support level between 1.1205 and 1.13, as shown on the following Weekly chart. A possible bounce is in store for the Euro.

Failure to begin stabilizing at this level and reclaim the major resistance level between 1.19 and 1.2125 (seen pre- and post-2007/08 financial crisis) could send the Euro plunging down to the 2000 lows of 0.8227. I can't imgine that's what Mr. Draghi has in mind with his ECB QE policy announcment earlier today...although stranger things have happened.

US $ At An "Interesting" Level

USD hit major price and double-Fibonacci resistance at 93.00, as shown on the following Weekly chart. A break and hold above that level could prove "interesting" for other world currencies (Euro, Canadian $, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, etc.)...(at the time of writing this post, the Canadian $ is -1.83 at 80.77).

Volatility in currencies has certainly been the norm, of late.

Will Euro Follow Swiss Franc's Meteoric Rise?

In my post of December 16, 2014, I stated:

    " It may be that we will see larger volatility ensue in currencies, before they play out to any great extent (or near-term trends become very clear) in world indices."

The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators on the following Daily ratio chart below of the SPX vs Swiss Franc ($SPX:$XSF) were forecasting a weakening of the SPX compared to the XSF from last November.

Who knew we'd see a drop of 18.75% (of the Swiss Franc) in one day (last Thursday)! A drop and hold below its (the SPX:XSF ratio) current major support level of 17 (formed from early-to mid-2014) could roil equity markets globally.

The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators on the following Daily ratio chart below of the SPX vs Euro ($SPX:$XEU) are also forecasting a weakening of the SPX compared to the XEU from last November.

Perhaps we'll see a repeat of the above price action when the ECB's President Draghi speaks on January 22nd...if so, price could plunge to somewhere between 13.5 and 14.0 at major support...or lower...one to watch in the near term, along with world markets!

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200 Day MA Flirting With Major Support

The two charts below of the percentage of stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages, respectively,  show that they are flirting with major support (at the 35 level and the 60 level, respectively). A drop and hold below those levels could see these percentages free-fall for awhile down to their 3-year lows, or lower.

Note the downward-sloping highs on the second chart from last July...indicating that, longer term, the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA has been waning and making successive lower highs, and warning of a weakening market, in general.

Correlated with a break and hold below those would be a break and hold below, firstly, 2000 on the SPX, then, 1966 (200 MA)...we could, then, very well see a re-test of 1850 or 1800 (or lower) in short order.

No wonder we've seen some very volatile overnight and intraday swings since last July. I expect to see that volatility continue until we see a clear break and hold above 2100 on the SPX, along with a bullish cross-over (and hold) of the 50 MA above the 200 MA on the second chart (above).

Copper Breaks Through Major Support Level & Could Re-test 2008 Lows

The following Weekly chart of Copper shows that price has broken below a major support level of 2.5517 (confluence of Fibonacci Retracement, Fibonacci Fanlines, and downtrending channel) and is hovering above price support level of 2.385.

Failure to reclaim and hold above what is now major resistance at 2.5517 and a drop and hold below 2.385 could see Copper plunging to 2008 lows of 1.255.

French CAC Index Lagging

Of the 6 World Indices below, the French CAC Index is lagging. It's been relatively weak since September 2011, and has failed to reach new highs (and been in a major decline) since August 2000. A drop and hold below the major support level of 4,000 could spell some major problems for France and other EU countries.

S&P 500 Index

Canada's TSX Index

China's Shanghai Index

U.K.'S FTSE 100 Index

Germany's DAX Index

France's CAC Index

Dow 30 Index Will Set the Direction

My 2 cents' worth today...just a general comment...further to my post of December 25th, I think the Dow 30 will either lead the other Major Indices higher or lower...that's the one to watch closely from today onward over the near term.

Blow-Off Top In Store for China's Shanghai Index?

With price approaching a major support level at 0.600 on this 3-year Daily ratio chart of the SPX vs SSEC (and diverging RSI), and with price essentially vertical on the 3-year Daily chart of the SSEC (and diverging RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators), I'd say that we're close to a blow-off top on China's Shanghai Index.

Canada's TSX Index On Its Way To 13,650 Again?

As I write this post around 10:45 am ET on Monday, January 5th, Canada's TSX Index has plunged by 310 pts., as shown on the following 3-year Daily chart.

A hold below the 50 MA (a bearish Death Cross formed awhile ago and was retested twice) could see price drop to retest the double bottom around 13,650, or lower. Watch for a bearish crossover to form on the MACD and for a drop and hold below the zero level to confirm such a scenario.

Also, as I mentioned in my post of January 2nd, a drop and hold below $50.00 on WTIC Oil could very create such a down-draft in the TSX Index...and, possibly, all other World markets.

END-OF-DAY UPDATE: Here's a 1-year Daily chart of the TSX Index as it closed today. Note the bearish RSI crossover below the 50 level, along with a bearish crossover of Stochastics...hinting of further weakness to come.

The following 3-year Daily ratio chart of the SPX vs the TSX shows the under performance of the SPX from its peak on December 10th. Price is now sitting on a confluence of major support provided by an uptrend (which began on September 16th) and rising 50 MA. All three indicators (RSI, MACD and Stochastics) are suggesting a further weakening of the SPX...one to watch, along with the TSX and Oil, as a break below this major support level could prompt a major sell-off in U.S. equities.

EUR/USD...Look Out Below 1.19

My Weekly chart of EUR/USD shows major support at 1.19 and major resistance at 1.2125. The recent bearish Death Cross on this timeframe suggests further weakness to come...look out below 1.19, imho.

2014 World Market Wrap-Up

Happy New Year 2015!

My World Market Wrap-Up for 2013 can be found here.

The following charts and graphs show the trends and gains and losses made in a number of world markets for 2014. They will be shown without individual comment, initially, as you can see at a glance where major support and resistance are (50 MA in both cases), and where the outliers are (which ones made the most gains or losses for the year).