Europe has major problems and does not have a unified fiscal approach that is being actively implemented by all Eurozone countries. Germany will have to backstop and supply monetary support in some fashion if it truly wants to see all countries remain in the Euro. Otherwise, countries who do not wish to continue under the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) rules will leave the Euro...simple as that.
In the U.S., the key to continued economic growth and a renewed support (and confidence) in its markets (which is currently lacking) will depend on a strengthening of its own fiscal policies and its financial institutions, so that it may weather (and prosper in spite of) any major downdrafts in Europe. Until then, the markets are faced with further uncertainty and will be choppy and continue to be affected by Europe's rumours and problems.
To illustrate this last point, I'll be watching the bank stocks, as shown on the Daily chartgrid below to measure their performance against the Major Indices. At the moment, they're weaker (in spite of QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist), and are caught in the downdraft from March of this year...not a healthy sign for the equity markets to advance with confidence.
A further clue to near-term equity strength vs weakness may lie in these Daily charts of the Commodities ETF (DBC) and the AUD/USD forex pair. I last wrote about these in my post of May 15th. Price declined further on these, as well as in the equity markets. Since then, we now have a bearish Death Cross formation on both charts. Price is trading in the vicinity of prior swing lows, the decline in momentum is slowing, and Stochastics and RSI are beginning to diverge...signs that these markets are trying to stabilize and potentially reverse. However, they are now under the influence of bearish market action and may be quite volatile and choppy for awhile, which may, in turn, cause volatile and choppy price action in the equity markets...ones to keep an eye on over the next days/weeks ahead.
