Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary: Where are the "Fat Cats" hiding and what are they up to?

WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...

* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.

* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.

* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.

* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Where are the "Fat Cats" hiding and what are they up to?

Where and what, indeed! Methinks their hiding place is within the "Thin Ice Zone" that I mentioned in my post yesterday: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/12/some-bears-are-still-awake.html

I say this because what has been "hatched" from within this zone since August of this year has been one clever-sounding rumour after another, and cleverly-timed press releases, the results of which have made little or no impact on resolving global economic challenges as countries' politicians struggle with fiscal/unity problems. In the meantime, we're left with this volatile and unpredictable market of 2011.

For example, as I mentioned in my post of December 3rd: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/12/fat-finger-look-likes.html, immediately after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, price plunged down towards the upper end of the former "Fat-Finger" candle on the Weekly timeframe of the YM, ES & NQ, and mid-way into it on the TF...a violent re-test of this extremely volatile action...pre-planned or coincidence?

Manufacturing may have been up on this latest monthly data release, as shown on the graph below, but business inventories also rose this past Tuesday, as shown on the second graph (both graphs courtesy of www.forexfactory.com). We'll see whether the smoke continues to billow from those chimneys or whether it will reduce to a wisp as growth slows in global economies...something to add to the "Watch" compartment in my "little grey cells" as a potential negative influence/drag on the equity and commodity markets.

By the way, the TF has re-visited the "Fat-Finger" zone since my post of December 3rd and is currently trading within...the ES dipped its toe into that level just after mid-night last night and has closed today just above...the updated Weekly chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF is below...the important "Fat-Finger" levels are 11000 for the YM, 1200 for the ES, 2050 for the NQ, and 730 for the TF...a hold below those levels could set the stage for more violent plunges ahead.

The ES, NQ & TF are still trading within their respective "Thin Ice Zones," while the YM trades above.

The VIX closed above 25.00 again today, as shown on the Daily chart below...as I mentioned in recent posts, it's my opinion that anything above this level holds the potential for large volatile swings in the S&P 500...an important level to be held by the bears.