The first chartgrid shows a Weekly timeframe. Overlayed on each chart are 2 regression channels...the longest beginning at their 2007 highs and the shortest beginning at their 2009 lows. This week, price closed up and at or near the "mean" of the shorter channel on all of the 4 e-minis...while price closed above the +1 deviation of the longer channel on the YM, ES & TF for a second week and price closed at the +1 deviation of the longer channel on the NQ. The longer that the YM, ES & TF stay above the +1 deviation level, the better chance they have of continuing in their weekly uptrend and the better chance that the YM & ES have of reversing their longer channel's downtrend...in this regard, the NQ will need to "catch up" and begin a series of closes above the +1 deviation level.
The YM & ES will need to make a new Weekly swing high and close above the "mean" of the shorter channel to continue their Weekly uptrend and to validate their last swing low as a higher swing low. However, since the NQ & TF broke their last Weekly swing low, they will need to put in a series of higher swing lows and highs to re-establish their Weekly uptrend once again.
The second chargrid shows a Daily timeframe. Overlayed on each chart are 2 regression channels...the longest beginning at their July 2010 lows and the shortest beginning at their March 2011 lows. On Friday, price closed as follows:
- down and on the +1 deviation of the shorter channel on the YM
- down and just above the +1 deviation of the shorter channel on the ES
- down and just below the +2 deviation of the shorter channel on the NQ
- down and half-way in between the +1 and +2 deviation of the shorter channel on the TF
Price needs to pull back on all 4 e-minis in order to establish a higher swing low and be followed by a higher swing high in order to establish a new Daily uptrend since the prior uptrend was broken by the latest pullback from their June highs.
The third chartgrid shows a 4-Hour timeframe. Overlayed on each chart are 2 regression channels...the longest beginning at their May 2011 highs and the shortest beginning at their June lows. At the end of Friday, price closed up after falling in pre-market trading. Price found support at their Monthly VWAP (blue) and bounced. The YM, ES & TF closed at the intersection of the +2 deviation of the longer channel and the "mean" of the shorter channel...the NQ closed above the +2 deviation of the longer channel and at the "mean" of the shorter channel.
All 4 e-minis will need to make a higher swing high and not break this past Wednesday's swing low in order to remain in its uptrend on this timeframe. One of the things I'll be watching next week is my 5 min Cummulative TICK chart to see whether Wednesday's low TICK of -1164 is broken for a possible clue as to market weakness, or the high TICK made the same day of +1386 to gauge market strength.
