And the sun sets on another month...

Photo taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock who was aboard the International Space Station:

How the month of April ended for...

Daily chart of Gold:   (Hint: to open each chart in a separate window, right-click on the chart and select 'Open link in new window')

Daily chart of Silver:

Daily chart of "Gliver" (comparison chart of GLD & SLV):

3 days/candle chart of Copper:

Weekly chart of Oil:

YM, ES, NQ & TF Monthly chart (note that price closed at the end of April above the neckline of a Daily IH&S...see Daily chart following):

YM, ES, NQ & TF Daily chart showing neckline & potential upside target:



YM, ES, NQ & TF 60 min (in essence, the Daily PP, which is the horizontal pink line, has held as support each day for the past three days):

April ended on a very bullish note, indeed. Generally, and on an intraday basis, I'll look for the same bullish pattern to continue next week for the YM, ES, NQ & TF, as noted in my comments on the 60 min chart, and drill down to lower timeframes to look for entries until this fails...assuming market internals are supporting this pattern each day.

No Post-Market Review Tonight...

I likely won't be posting a market review today, as I have other commitments.

The Moment of "Truth" has arrived...

Here's how the VIX closed the day relative to the Monthly, Weekly & Daily charts (Hint: right-click on each link to open a chart in a new window):

http://screencast.com/t/oFWJDINTWrA

http://screencast.com/t/ieCFQpnFTuY

http://screencast.com/t/STfgepg4ZBc

Here's how YM, ES, NQ & TF closed the day relative to the Monthly, Weekly & Daily charts:

http://screencast.com/t/88gnTTDo

http://screencast.com/t/YurLTdGO

http://screencast.com/t/dpbXgsUn6Dq

With today's breakout on the Daily charts (post-Fed meeting results) on YM, ES & NQ (however, TF failed to break its last swing high), and the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged, it would appear that the markets have been given the blessing to make their way back up to at least the 2007 highs unhindered (NQ is already there & TF hasn't far to go), while allowing the VIX to fall to its 2007 lows. Perhaps when the VIX has reached those levels, it will stabilize. As a first-stage confirmation of this potential scenario, I'll look to see if the breakout levels on the 3 e-minis can hold in the near-term and whether the TF will follow suit. On an intraday basis, extreme bullishness tomorrow would be confirmed to me by tomorrow's Daily PP's (dotted pink horizontal line) holding as support as shown on the 60 min charts, with price continuing upwards from there and a closure over today's highs:

http://screencast.com/t/WDCQynlOnm

It also seems that the Fed is ignoring what the NKD is doing...until another future disaster possibly occurs in Japan. After the earthquake, the YM, ES, NQ & TF basically traded identically to NKD, but the recovery of the NKD has not taken place to the same degree:

http://screencast.com/t/tUldJ0BS6xO

Pre-Fed Tuesday Summary...

Of the 4 e-minis, only YM has pushed and held above prior pivot resistance on the Daily chart so far:

http://screencast.com/t/hBQsWYZ3

At the moment, YM, ES, NQ & TF are all sitting above tomorrow's Daily PP (dotted pink line), as well as their 21ema's (broken white) & 50sma's (red) on the 60 min charts...I'll be watching intraday action tomorrow relative to these levels: 

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/338f9c72-a15e-44fb-ba88-b6054354a9ee

The April Monthly R1 and PP levels for the 4 e-minis are as follows (in theory, potential targets for the remainder of this week/month):

YM R1 = 12571       YM PP = 12011
ES R1 =   1358.25    ES PP = 1299.75
NQ R1 = 2415.75     NQ PP = 2300.75
TF R1 = 866.60        TF PP = 818.40

No participation in today's advance from NKD today:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/3d671948-8d85-4cc9-9b30-daa9f5fafcd3

Any longer term bullish bias on my part would have to be confirmed, firstly, by all 4 e-minis breaking and holding above the above noted pivot resistance levels and, secondly, a gap-fill and a sustained close and move upward above 10,000 on NKD (pre-earthquake level). The longer that the NKD stays within its current sideways basing zone, the more I wonder about the overall health of Japan's economy, as well as the "real" state of the nuclear reactors...(this is my natural skepticism coming into play here and my take on how I view Japan at the moment...other more influential traders could, of course, discount/ignore this until and if a worse disaster occurs there). I've also still got the 80.00 level up on my radar on USD/JPY to see if price holds above it or not (the seemingly-agreed-upon level by the US and Japan)...price is currently below the apex of a broadening triangle on the Daily chart:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/a43e53a2-839f-4b02-9087-23b8eb8957fb

We'll see what the Fed delivers tomorrow and what the market's reaction is in the short term.

Pre-Fed Monday Summary...

I have several general observations for YM, ES, NQ & TF only tonight...

Daily charts: This screenshot shows the daily see-saw action since Feb. 21/11...price is currently in the vicinity of an IHS "neckline." So far, price has bounced back above the 50sma (red) after being broken several times since that date.

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/23765682-7f9a-4ebd-8ce2-f69195c74733

60 min charts: This screenshot shows recent price consolidation relative to the "neckline" area on the Daily chart...price is either above, below, or around it and is either above, below or around chop area from early April.  The 50sma (red) X'd above the 200sma (pink) around mid-week (last week)...price is now contained within a tight sideways channel since then and is now near the steeply rising 50sma.

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/beed5bf3-4116-499d-afce-d2ac95f13ae1

Tomorrow I'll be watching price action relative to the latest sideways channel on the 60min charts to see if any meaningful and sustained movement occurs outside of it on decent volumes in either direction...I'll also be watching to see if price bounces around in between the 50 & 200sma's. In any event, I'll drilling down to smaller timeframes for any further clues throughout my trading day. Volumes were generally lighter today...will see if the markets are willing to make a committed move before the Fed announcement.

Easter Weekend Bottom Line...

The Fed has pushed the markets to unhealthy extreme levels as evidenced in my weekend posts below...if they insist on continuing along this same path, then they are simply running on "Artificial Intelligence," in my opinion.

That being said, I'll have to see how the markets trade, either continuing to bounce around in between their Daily support and resistance levels (see "Fat Finger" post below for chart grid of YM, ES, NQ & TF), or whether they break out on sustained momentum in either direction...in order to daytrade within the confines of any of these scenarios, I'll be drilling down to smaller timeframes and using my little "bag of tricks" to see whether any decent trades set up on TF before the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The potential exists for some big moves, as well as a "fizzle" until then. The key to all of this may lie in volume levels...will see how all of this plays out.

"Intaxication" -- Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.

Elephants on the run...

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9ad4090c-7212-43c7-9989-d84ae6dcf47f



'Gliver' on the run (a comparison chart of GLD & SLV):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/a3fbd7a2-490e-4dc1-aded-4d6039af75ab

Silver (attempted breakout of an even steeper uptrending regression channel...more Fib confluence above):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/ff074147-7b5d-4d8b-a17b-4fa1f5ffb988

Gold (continuing its upward climb towards Fib confluence):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9db6ec45-9e61-4226-9ad7-ff8bdb28475c

Gold and Silver are running...I won't be trying to stop them, but will simply watch for signs of either continued strength or any developing weakness and their relationship to the overall markets.

Resuscitating the S&P 500's Alter-Ego...

The "pulse of the patient" is contained somewhere within the S&P 500 and its alter-ego, the VIX. At the moment these "opposite twins" are apart at extreme levels...one is beating too fast and the other too slow. This is not healthy for the patient, imo, which needs to be rebalanced...various aspects of the economy and money flow need to be re-directed for awhile. The alter-egos need to be brought closer together so that they both don't run out of breath.

Who's playing Footsie?...

One other index I'll be glancing at next week is the FTSE 100...6000 is an important level...acting as resistance at the moment (weekly chart below):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/2f860c1b-22b7-4bfc-aedf-99aea0841d77

I'll also be interested to see what the GBP/USD currency pair does to see whether it can sustain its breakout last week from Feb/Mar/Apr highs (weekly chart below):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/631ffa9d-1148-421e-b610-abee3eb37d66

These may also give some clues as to overall market appetite and direction in the upcoming week(s).

Eyes on Japan...

I'll be watching NKD next week for possible clues on the general mood of the markets. It's still high basing after a recovery, but is still below the 10,000 level (& a gap) that it was at before the earthquake:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/5c3cd046-d320-4e6e-b9a9-3e58eba88a46

I'll also be watching the $80 level on the USD/JPY currency pair that seems to have been agreed upon by the US & Japan:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9e9e7e45-6dbd-4f0d-b880-07d6fb3a8ce9

Is Mr. Fat Finger getting itchy?...

A breakout one way or the other may not occur from the present Daily trading ranges of YM, ES, NQ & TF until the results of the Fed meeting on April 27 are known (until then, the recent trend is sideways...translation...expect more chop & whipsaw action, imo...I am always cautious of potential "fat finger" days in zones like these which have a lot of large-range candles):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/ea923d8a-53c1-41c3-9384-a04c14be99bb

USD is not looking healthy at all (below is a Weekly chart with Regression Channel...price closed the week below the channel mean...it could theoretically fall to the lower channel line):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/2238bb8e-d7e8-44e8-91b8-2cb8e7003c2b

The VIX is down in low levels seen in 1991-1996 and in 2004-2007 as shown on this Monthly chart:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/e632fc0a-1286-42c7-b555-20dd86592d51

Below is a Weekly chart of the VIX with Regression Channel...if it crosses below the mean and falls to the lower channel line, it would have to go to MINUS-zero by the end of next week in order to reach it! The VIX can't continue downward in this channel at the same pace ad-finitum...translation...the markets need to pull back to achieve a more healthy balance:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/da9f8b77-71c9-420a-a704-10a352552910

Complacency or Volatility???...

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/c13709fa-ef78-4519-baf5-4c49d9408dd9

Pretty anemic trading so far today (no sustained momentum in either direction so far today):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/eb9427e3-a83a-4682-a87f-50853eb7c89f

YM, ES, NQ & TF basically high basing since their gap up on the open yesterday (screenshot of 60 min market hours only chart...Volume Profile on the right hand of the charts is a monthly):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/6ce73c95-491c-4888-bf1a-385e36c1d64c

Thursday mid-a.m. review...

The 50sma's (red) have X'd above the 200 sma's (pink) on the 60 min globex charts of YM, ES, NQ & TF...I'll be watching to see whether price can hold within the vicinity of yesterday's 4:00p.m. long green candle...first level of support may be established around their 21 ema's (white) or fall back to the 50 sma's:   

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/d7c8242f-0904-41d8-8ade-ab118a634168

I'm also watching USD and TLT intraday for possible clues on direction.

"The pulse of the patient..."

     Below are five 3-chart grids of the YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD. The only items showing are candles, volume and the pivot point of each candle (represented as a short thick horizontal white line through each candle).

     The left chart is a Daily one, with the last candle being yesterday's. The middle chart is a 5 min (market hours only) one which shows yesterday's and today's data. The chart on the right is another Daily one which includes today's candle.

     You can see from the middle chart how price traded intraday in comparison to yesterday's Daily candle on the left chart and where it found various points of support relative to the pivot point on the Daily candle...as it happens, it gapped up on the open and failed to fill the gap. As well, you can see from the middle chart how each 5 min candle traded relative to the preceding 5 min one and its 5 min pivot point.

     This is something that I'll be trying to observe and analyze more closely throughout my trading day so that I can, hopefully, better identify turning points on whatever timeframe I'm trading with much better precision. I've shown the Daily & 5 min charts for illustrative purposes...this type of analysis could be applied to any timeframes. I'd like to use my scalpel successfully on my entries like a skilled surgeon would on his/her patient so that I don't end up holding the wrong end of it!

     With the Fed propping up the markets, it makes sense to me that I add this kind of analysis into my bag of tricks because higher and higher price prints seem to defy trendlines, channels, moving averages, overbought indicators, etc.

     I can only conclude that fair value ("the pulse of the patient") is the last closing price on each candle and not somewhere else that I think it should be. If I have any further insights on any of this in the future, I'll be sure to post it here.

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9a5f59fb-c760-417e-a144-c2a4696d30aa

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/2248931f-238e-4ce5-aa26-05773a6787c0

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/b187a214-4415-4565-941f-e07b4fdf636f

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/ad7121b2-69fb-4473-a215-3b182013a49a

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/bd8d6a21-7c11-413a-98f3-1ce77819d85a

Today's action so far...

General end-of-day take on YM, ES, NQ & TF...

Reverse polarity for Advn/Decn Issues and Up/Down Volumes from yesterday to today:

(Hint...you can right-click on each of the links below to open the chart in a new web window)

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/12464a5b-539e-4cfc-a1e7-fc9c752868c1 



YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD are still within their recent downward sloping channels on the Daily chart (all 4 e-minis, except NKD, are trading above their 50sma (red) as I write this after-hours):

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/f80b48b4-7e34-4fd6-b7e1-ba72fcd1f8bb

Looking at 60 min charts of YM, ES, NQ & TF, I see that the 21ema (white) has X'd above the 50sma (red) on YM, ES & NQ...TF is the laggard today. Both the 21 & 50 ma's remain underneath a declining 200sma (pink) on all 4 e-minis:

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/dae35570-c0bf-45c7-a5ca-ae78142cec29


See-saw action is occuring on the Daily charts as evidenced by price action within the narrow downward sloping channel and by reverse swings on Advn/Decn Isses and Up/Down Volumes. Should the 50 ma's cross above the 200 ma's on all 4 e-minis with higher volume buying strength on the 60 min charts, then by that time, a new Daily swing high may have been made. It could be that price consolidates somewhere between/around these 2 ma's (either in a continued downward sloping channel or sideways) until they merge and a breakout occurs one way or the other. I will be watching the Cummulative TICK action, Advn/Decn Issues, Up/Down Volumes, the USD, and NKD as strength and directional guages, as well as a number of other markets and noteworthy news items.

Patience needed so far today...the markets will reveal all...

My "Black & White" take on today's morning market action:

In a nutshell, I'll be watching for a sustained break and hold below today's lows with conviction on YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD at some point to confirm any market weakness on the Daily charts...otherwise...well, I'll just have to see what other intraday signals tomorrow brings..."zones of interest" I'll be watching on TF are these two...814.10 to 820.00, and 820.00 to 835.80...to see whether further weakness develops in these zones...otherwise, for anything above 835.80, I'd be looking for any confirmation that strength is resuming.

Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary - 4-15-11

RVX (CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index) is approaching low levels reached pre-Sept. '08:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/f301ff69-2a59-41bb-875c-2534b6f418d5

Sugar hit & closed near lower Reg Channel on Weekly chart:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/d04e017a-8e1c-4c0d-95ac-68ae62a189f8

N.B. This chart is a 3-candle/day chart (the last candle finished Apr. 15)...Copper trying to find support @ 4.255 (still above 50sma):     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/2c6d13f4-2a22-439f-a091-b20e0c73b840

Weekly chart of Oil...finished back down & within upper area of uptrending regression channel:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/0c3ee6d1-a522-4a98-a90d-44af5d60864e

Silver in steeper uptrending regression channel:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/8104e973-d44c-4eb8-8255-a190cb4a3b34

Gold has surpassed GS' target of 1480 which they announced on Mar. 17:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/aff3cbf4-63b2-45f2-8637-ca828da84018

John Murphy of StockCharts.com mentioned on April 17/11 that over the last week Energy & Materials have reversed from being the strongest to the two weakest sectors and that Staples & Healthcare have reversed to the two strongest...and that "it doesn't necessarily mean that a major top is forming, but does suggest that market sentiment has turned more defensive which usually suggests a market correction or a period of consolidation"...one ETF I'll be glancing at from time to time over the next while for a possible clue on any sector rotation is PHO for a breakout of either 20.61 or 18.68 on high volume:    
http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/b9c0b6c0-5290-45d0-89f1-b4beeb8275b5

ADVN/DECN Issues...60 min chart shows a pop up and close outside of the declining Regression Channel...note that the beginning of this channel was drawn from the highest close at the beginning of this last monthly Opt. Exp. period to the lowest close at the end (March to April/11)...this is the highest close outside the channel since the end-of-day close on March 30:    http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/073d7670-8316-450b-88d4-9435816a5520

                                ...The close on March 30 for the TF was 838.70 which was the highest daily close since the major market turnaround in March/09...Friday's close for the TF was 834.00...in and around these 2 price levels are a variety of Pivot Points for various timeframes: The Daily PP for Monday is 830.00...The Weekly PP for this coming week is 829.90...OPEX PP for May is 827.90...The Monthly PP is 818.40...the Quarterly PP is 817.50...other Pivot Points which are further away are: June OPEX PP is 799.40...1/2 Yearly PP is 720.50...Yearly PP is 718.60. Additionally there are a variety of Volume Profile POC levels on various timeframes which are in and around these 2 price levels: 824.30 for the March-April Opt. Exp. period, 846.00 for the month of April so far, 827.40 for the week just ended and 829.70 for Friday, April 15.

Daily chart of TF shows Volume Profile for the Monthly Opt. Exp. period which expired on Apr. 15...Opt. Exp. POC ended @ 824.30 (heavy red line)...price bounced @ confluence of 50sma, bottom of uptrending regression channel, Fib retrace & Fib fan lines):     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/6de0be6d-4498-4c76-b3ae-a5022bd376e6

Hourly chart of TF shows an ending on the week of a retrace up to a confluence level of a Fib extension & Fib fan lines:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/b928a9c0-a655-4968-8d52-d06589dd9018

Another hourly chart of TF shows the same ending on the week of a retrace into a confluence vicinity of other Fib lines:   http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/81ff6ece-edc6-4a63-a51f-68945d1f7989

CONCLUSIONS:  imo, the Daily bull uptrend is not over yet for TF as it is still within its most recent uptrending Regression Channel and has not yet made a lower swing low...but the low of 813.40 set on April 14 still needs to be confirmed as a higher daily swing low...price ended into some intraday Fib confluence resistance just below a 50% retracement from its high set on April 6 to its low set on April 14...additionally, TF ended just above sideways chop area shown on this 4 hourly (market hours only) chart:    

http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9d121547-76d9-46bc-9518-fc24598b1ac9 ...further downside potential exists down to at least 800.00 (and still not violate its prior daily swing low of  770.20), but any major reversal on it below that level & on YM, ES & NQ would likely have to have to include commodities, currencies, ETFs, foreign ETFs, bonds...barring any catastrophic event in Japan...for now the NKD is high-basing on its Daily chart below its gap:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/1008b3a0-ffe5-4bcf-837f-b1b36bcdeb4e

I'll be watching to see how next week unfolds...and try and guage whether further intraday weakness develops below the 50% retracement level, or whether increased strength gathers above that area (835.80), generally, as well as keeping an eye on the above markets.