U.S. BANK BUBBLE AHEAD?

Working on it...

Just sayin'...😏

* UPDATE March 6...

The Trump economic effect on the U.S. stock market: HINT...Destructive, so far.

All gains for 2025 in the Major Averages have been wiped out and they're now under water for the year. 👀

TRUMP: Tariffs are on...oh, wait, they're paused for one month...then one month later, they're on again...no, now they're paused temporarily for another month! 🤢

He may love tariffs and jerking foreign allies around, but it's clear that markets do NOT! 

More details on tariffs can be read in this ZeroHedge article...and, now, on auto loan defaults, as outlined here...as well as, Trump's possible intention to push the U.S. into a recession via DOGE cuts (and other measures) while blaming it on the remaining effects of "Bidenomics," as described here. BUT, that plan could backfire and recession could degrade into stagflation, instead, so it may not be so smart after all! 👀

In any event, volatility has ramped up in both directions and will likely continue for the foreseeable future, since who, especially foreign and domestic investors and business owners, as well as American consumers, can trust anything President Trump says anymore relative to this topic!

U.S. Major Indices

% Gained/Lost Year-to-Date 2025

U.S. Major Indices

% Gained/Lost Past One Month

U.S. Major Indices

% Gained/Lost Past Week

* UPDATE March 10...

A sea of red in world markets, so far, today...

How they ended the day...🔻...more details and what's ahead here.

Source: StockQ.org

* UPDATE March 11...

President Trump is continuing with his greedy economic cannibalization of Canada by imposing additional tariffs in his maniacal trade war, as detailed in this article.

At the same time, he is threatening the national security of his own United States by decimating the flow of crucial goods to and from Canada, its most stable, reliable and long-time trading partner in the world!

WHY??? 👀

How markets are responding, so far, today...🔻

How they ended the day...🔻

The following noteworthy economic data reports are being released this week, as well as the next FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday March 19, which may also have an influencial impact on markets.

N.B. By the way, there's no point in reporting any further on the day-to-day drama caused by Trump's erratic decisions on tariffs and trade, since it's anyone's guess how long that ugly scenario will continue...potentially, for the next four years! 👀

However, the preceding simply illustrates how unhinged from reality they are...and how detrimental they are for the already-weakening U.S. banking sector, as well as the stock market, in general.

Just where the bottom of these markets lie is anyone's guess...possibly at the point when the President eliminates his destabilizing global tariffs and stops his unjustifiable trade war.

P.S. On that note, it is amazing that President Trump continues to, not only lay bare for all to see, but to amplify his total ignorance of world trade practices and agreements (including the existing tri-lateral USMCA trade agreement that he negotiated and signed with Canada and Mexico on November 30, 2018, which replaced the former NAFTA trade agreement), as highlighted in this article. 

So, it's HIS own trade deal, about which he once bragged as being the "best trade deal ever made," that he now says is crap and unjust toward the U.S.!

Perhaps he is suffering from some form of dementia and/or schizophrenia?...because his rhetoric, threats and outbursts are completely nonsensical, unstable, unpredictable, ever-changing from moment to moment, as well as, unprofessional, and his accusations are false! 

In a nutshell, his 'modus operandi' is thus: He'll flatter you one moment to soften you up and disarm/distract you, then turn around and, figuratively, stab you in the back the next! 👀

Who could ever trust someone like that? 😕

U.S. Bank/Financial ETFs

% Gained/Lost Past One Month

U.S. Major Sectors

% Gained/Lost Past One Month

BUCKLE UP! 🤢

From This Week's "Smile File"...Best Phrase Of The Week 😏

I think Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent nailed it today when he described former President Joe Biden's economic agenda during his one term in office as "orgiastic government spending."

It seems that President Trump's goal is to reprivatize many federal government jobs via an in-depth multi-agency review of waste, fraud and abuse, along with a cost-cutting task, that was handed to the newly-created (temporary) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

They have until July 4, 2026 to complete their assignment...so, we'll see how this impacts fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the overall health of the economy and national security issues by that deadline.

Source: Real Clear Politics

Real Clear Politics excerpt

From This Week's "Smile File"...Cognitive Offloading 😏

Remember when "cognitive offloading" went something like this?...

Now...

The Art of Conflict Resolution

N.B. While the following process may sound overly simplistic, it can work based on it's simple 'common sense' principles.

Just as there is a process into which an artist immerses himself/herself before creating a masterpiece, there is also a process that can be followed for people to resolve conflicts.

The next time you're about to have a 'discussion' with someone who may have a differing opinion than you about an issue, you may want to ask him/her if they would like to:

• be clear about the issue,
• accurately identify and agree upon what you're both trying to achieve, and
• effectively resolve an issue to your mutual satisfaction.

If he/she is willing, then it may be helpful if you both take a few moments to use the flow chart below to map out exactly what each of you desires...write out your answers separately, then compare notes. You're both more likely to resolve your situation or issue on a 'win-win' basis if you both completely understand each other's points of view and desires. 

Resolving your issue may end up with you both simply 'agreeing to disagree,' respectfully, then moving on, with no hard feelings toward each other...you will likely develop a deeper relationship, as a result...a better place to be, rather than further apart, wouldn't you agree? And, you would both end up creating your own 'masterpiece.'

N.B. While you're discussing the issue, you may find that other issues surface...set those aside to deal with another time, using this method...stick to one issue at a time for best results.

P.S. If you're wrestling with several options or paths to follow on a single issue that involves only yourself, you can also use the above approach and play 'devil's advocate' (take both sides) in order to decide which option/path would be best for you to implement.

Trump's Big Red Button Activates International Economic Warfare

On February 1 President Trump signed an executive order that imposes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective February 4...outside of the terms of the existing tri-lateral USMCA trade agreement involving these countries. 

This is odd, considering he bragged about renegotiating and signing this agreement on November 30, 2018, which replaced the prior prior NAFTA trade agreement.

The leaders of Canada and Mexico are retaliating with their own tariffs, as well as multiple measures by individual Canadian provinces (such as this), sparking a potential catastrophic trade war for all concerned.

At of the time of writing this post, President Trump has refused to take Canadian Prime Minister's phone calls placed to him since the date he was inaugurated.

The President is also imposing 10% tariffs on China, who are considering their response..and said he's also considering adding tariffs on Europe, the UK, and Taiwan, etc., as well as sanctions on, as yet, undefined entities. He is also dismantling USAID as described here and here....and has been busy taking other actions at home and abroad.

Tariffs and sanctions would spike already highish levels of inflation, as well as produce multiple job and industry losses worldwide...and create huge losses for foreign and domestic investors in a variety of sectors directly and indirectly impacted by his actions...potentially leading to a recession in some countries.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: NBC Philadelphia/CNBC

The Wall Street Journal has dubbed Trump's action as "The Dumbest Trade War in History."

Source: WSJ Opinion

As I write this article Sunday evening, U.S. futures markets (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) are tanking along with Chinese/Asian/Aussie/European markets, WTI Crude Oil is spiking, and the U.S. Dollar is spiking thereby tanking the Canadian Dollar and other world currencies.

N.B. Updated details on overnight trading can be found here.

The President's pretext (based on the text of the executive order) for the imposition of these tariffs is, at best, flimsy, and, at worst (based on his ever-changing rhetoric, outright factual lies and repeated taunts), unjustly punitive, bullying, hostile, nonsensical, reckless, and smacks of imperialism, as well as geopolitical and sovereign cannibalism. It also appears to be politically and personally motivated, in some cases.

We'll see how long this tariff warfare lasts, and the extent of unnecessary economic and political damage it causes around the world.

N.B. In the meantime, Canada needs to wise up and diversify its trade internationally and inter-provincially, as it cannot tolerate being subjected to irrational whims of a belligerent, erratic foreign leader who wants to annex it via these legally-suspect tactics (Canada becoming the 51st state of America)...especially one who verbally keeps changing the goal posts of what it is he's actually after.

N.B. On the other hand, since Mr. Trump seems intent on joining the U.S. with Canada, perhaps the U.S. should, instead, become, either the 11th Canadian Province, or its 4th territory...forming a much larger Canada...BUT, first, they have to pay off their $36+ Trillion national debt and clear up and eliminate all their fiscal and political fraud, waste and abuse (UPDATE Feb. 23: this elimination has begun, as detailed here), because Canadians do NOT want to be saddled with any of it...nor, do they want their country to become the 51st state. How's that for a "reciprocal" proposal, Mr. President...your favourite word these days! 😏

Markets hate uncertainty.

Buckle up!

* UPDATE February 3...

Both Canada and Mexico have been given a tariff reprieve of 30 days to enact a plan that (presumably) satisfies the President's concerns outlined in his executive order related to fentanyl and illegal migration along the northern and southern U.S. borders, as described in this article.

So, we'll see what happens.

However, it appears that there's more to this than meets the eye in that regard.

First off, President Trump will need to identify exactly what the "economic" problems are that, supposedly, need 'fixing,' to which he has alluded at the end of his latest post (below) on his social media platform. So far, his actions and rhetoric have all been theatrical megalomaniacal insanity...not based on a rational broad mutually-cohesive strategic economic plan!

So, who knows what would ever satisfy him regarding tariffs. Let's hope that common sense prevails.

But, don't hold your breath.

* UPDATE February 4...

President Trump's threat of tariffs on China became a reality today, with China retaliating with tariffs of its own against the U.S., as described below.

Source: ZeroHedge

P.S. In addition to the above tariffs, President Trump has promised that more tariffs are also in store for a number of specific goods from Canada, Mexico, China and multiple other countries worldwide.

There is no hibernating this winter for the 'global inflation bear who has been poked.'

Keep an eye on potential business and personal bankruptcies and the effect on U.S. banks over the coming weeks/months.

BEWARE!

* UPDATE March 3...

AND...the negotiating is over...global tariff wars begin...and more on this here...

Source: ZeroHedge

BUCKLE UP...again! 👀

More on banks and tariffs here.