From This Week's "Smile File"...Cognitive Offloading 😏

Remember when "cognitive offloading" went something like this?...

Now...

The Art of Conflict Resolution

N.B. While the following process may sound overly simplistic, it can work based on it's simple 'common sense' principles.

Just as there is a process into which an artist immerses himself/herself before creating a masterpiece, there is also a process that can be followed for people to resolve conflicts.

The next time you're about to have a 'discussion' with someone who may have a differing opinion than you about an issue, you may want to ask him/her if they would like to:

• be clear about the issue,
• accurately identify and agree upon what you're both trying to achieve, and
• effectively resolve an issue to your mutual satisfaction.

If he/she is willing, then it may be helpful if you both take a few moments to use the flow chart below to map out exactly what each of you desires...write out your answers separately, then compare notes. You're both more likely to resolve your situation or issue on a 'win-win' basis if you both completely understand each other's points of view and desires. 

Resolving your issue may end up with you both simply 'agreeing to disagree,' respectfully, then moving on, with no hard feelings toward each other...you will likely develop a deeper relationship, as a result...a better place to be, rather than further apart, wouldn't you agree? And, you would both end up creating your own 'masterpiece.'

N.B. While you're discussing the issue, you may find that other issues surface...set those aside to deal with another time, using this method...stick to one issue at a time for best results.

P.S. If you're wrestling with several options or paths to follow on a single issue that involves only yourself, you can also use the above approach and play 'devil's advocate' (take both sides) in order to decide which option/path would be best for you to implement.

Trump's Big Red Button Activates International Economic Warfare

On February 1 President Trump signed an executive order that imposes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective February 4...outside of the terms of the existing tri-lateral USMCA trade agreement involving these countries. 

This is odd, considering he bragged about renegotiating and signing this agreement on November 30, 2018, which replaced the prior prior NAFTA trade agreement.

The leaders of Canada and Mexico are retaliating with their own tariffs, as well as multiple measures by individual Canadian provinces (such as this), sparking a potential catastrophic trade war for all concerned.

At of the time of writing this post, President Trump has refused to take Canadian Prime Minister's phone calls placed to him since the date he was inaugurated.

The President is also imposing 10% tariffs on China, who are considering their response..and said he's also considering adding tariffs on Europe, the UK, and Taiwan, etc., as well as sanctions on, as yet, undefined entities. He is also dismantling USAID as described here and here....and has been busy taking other actions at home and abroad.

Tariffs and sanctions would spike already highish levels of inflation, as well as produce multiple job and industry losses worldwide...and create huge losses for foreign and domestic investors in a variety of sectors directly and indirectly impacted by his actions...potentially leading to a recession in some countries.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: NBC Philadelphia/CNBC

The Wall Street Journal has dubbed Trump's action as "The Dumbest Trade War in History."

Source: WSJ Opinion

As I write this article Sunday evening, U.S. futures markets (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) are tanking along with Chinese/Asian/Aussie/European markets, WTI Crude Oil is spiking, and the U.S. Dollar is spiking thereby tanking the Canadian Dollar and other world currencies.

N.B. Updated details on overnight trading can be found here.

The President's pretext (based on the text of the executive order) for the imposition of these tariffs is, at best, flimsy, and, at worst (based on his ever-changing rhetoric, outright factual lies and repeated taunts), unjustly punitive, bullying, hostile, nonsensical, reckless, and smacks of imperialism, as well as geopolitical and sovereign cannibalism. It also appears to be politically and personally motivated, in some cases.

We'll see how long this tariff warfare lasts, and the extent of unnecessary economic and political damage it causes around the world.

N.B. In the meantime, Canada needs to wise up and diversify its trade internationally and inter-provincially, as it cannot tolerate being subjected to irrational whims of a belligerent, erratic foreign leader who wants to annex it via these legally-suspect tactics (Canada becoming the 51st state of America)...especially one who verbally keeps changing the goal posts of what it is he's actually after.

N.B. On the other hand, since Mr. Trump seems intent on joining the U.S. with Canada, perhaps the U.S. should, instead, become, either the 11th Canadian Province, or its 4th territory...forming a much larger Canada...BUT, first, they have to pay off their $36+ Trillion national debt and clear up and eliminate all their fiscal and political fraud, waste and abuse, because Canadians do NOT want to be saddled with any of it...nor, do they want their country to become the 51st state. How's that for a "reciprocal" proposal, Mr. President...your favourite word these days! 😏

Markets hate uncertainty.

Buckle up!

* UPDATE February 3...

Both Canada and Mexico have been given a tariff reprieve of 30 days to enact a plan that (presumably) satisfies the President's concerns outlined in his executive order related to fentanyl and illegal migration along the northern and southern U.S. borders, as described in this article.

So, we'll see what happens.

However, it appears that there's more to this than meets the eye in that regard.

First off, President Trump will need to identify exactly what the "economic" problems are that, supposedly, need 'fixing,' to which he has alluded at the end of his latest post (below) on his social media platform. So far, his actions and rhetoric have all been theatrical megalomaniacal insanity...not based on a rational broad mutually-cohesive strategic economic plan!

So, who knows what would ever satisfy him regarding tariffs. Let's hope that common sense prevails.

But, don't hold your breath.

* UPDATE February 4...

President Trump's threat of tariffs on China became a reality today, with China retaliating with tariffs of its own against the U.S., as described below.

Source: ZeroHedge

P.S. In addition to the above tariffs, President Trump has promised that more tariffs are also in store for a number of specific goods from Canada, Mexico, China and multiple other countries worldwide.

There is no hibernating this winter for the 'global inflation bear who has been poked.'

BEWARE!

SPX: What's In Store From 2025 To 2029?

On December 29, 2019, I posted this article on the SPX which analyzed its history from 1932, and which presented a long-view forecast of what's in store for the 2020s and 2030s.

Overall, it showed that, for the most part, the SPX has been a strong BUY candidate for longer-term investors over an average of 30 years running, and that it was likely to be repeated for another 10-20 years, generally speaking, based on the following chart (each candle represents a period of one year).

SPX Yearly chart

As can be seen on the following current monthly chart, price dropped a bit from that date before it began to rise, break above the long-term channel and rise again, then drop and retest the breakout level, before, finally, proceeding to form a new and steeper channel and upward trend (defined by an Andrew's Pitchfork technical drawing).

In keeping with the above-referenced bullish outlook for the 2020s, I'd expect to see the SPX trading around one of two possible levels by the end of President Trump's second term (January 20, 2029)...barring any catastrophic events, of course:

• 9,500 at the upper edge of the lower 1/4 of the channel, or
• 11,000 at the upper edge of entire channel

So, we'll see what happens...and, as I explained in the above-referenced post, as long as the Technology Sector remains strong until then, one of those two scenarios is a very real possibility.

SPX Monthly chart

SOFTBANK: Boom Or Bust?

In 2022, I posted several articles on SoftBank's (SFTBY) reckless business investments and failures, which can be found at this link.

I'm not convinced that their new AI partnership with "Stargate" members will prove to be any more profitable for them than those, which were not...or that their investment will be any more wise than the others, which were not.

Time will tell.

Source: ZeroHedge

This venture may be SoftBank's biggest black hole investment yet..."no clear goal, no timeline, and no real way to measure it" also means no transparency...buyer beware.

Source: Slope of Hope

Overlayed on the following monthly chart of SFTBY are a number of technical drawings depicting a long-range rising channel, a "chaos zone," and a "froth zone."

The current price is currently trading in the upper portion of the "froth zone" and is at the top of the channel.

Failure of price to rise and hold above the upper levels of the "froth zone" and channel at 35.00 could see some volatile swings in either direction within this zone, until it becomes clearer to investors as to the viability and sustainability of SoftBank's latest capital venture, described above.

* UPDATE February 12...

The following X post is not good news for SoftBank.

As I write this update at 1:18 pm ET, SFTBY is trading at 30.76, down from 33.90 since January 23.

It seems that others are also concerned over SoftBank's investment decisions.

US Presidential Inauguration 2025: Donald J. Trump #47 & #45

JANUARY 20, 2025: Inauguration day of Donald J. Trump 47th & 45th President of the United States.

Image: TIME

The White House

Prescient?...😏

P.S. Looks like "the people" got the message leading up to the November presidential election...

2025: Rockin' In The New Year

I wish everyone a rockin' 2025, filled with good health, wealth, peace and happiness.

Happy New Year 2025! 🎉🎆

The Trump Dance

IMAGE: ZeroHedge

From This Week's "Smile File"...Computer Memories 😏

A nail-biting millennium moment...

BITCOIN: Floating On Air

A simple observation on Bitcoin reveals that it's floating on air following its parabolic breakout above 70,000 during the week of November 4, as shown on the following weekly chart.

A break and hold below 90,000 could see a retest of major support at 70,000, or, at least, a pullback from its high of 103,990 to around 86,995 (50% of the difference between 103,990 & 70,000 = 16,995) where we may see it consolidate for awhile before, either, resuming its upward movement or losing steam to fall to 70,000, or lower.

The one certainty or constant characteristic of this 'wild-west-like' trading instrument is that it has always been dominated by wild and extreme, volatile swings in both directions. 

I don't see that chaotic price action changing or moderating anytime soon...and is, thus, predictable.

Joe's Out...Kamala's In...BRACE YOURSELVES

This post is a continuation of the story I've laid out over multiple articles covering President Joe Biden during his first (and only) four-year term in office...the latest post in that six-part series can be read here...and a reminder post here.

In this new post, the script now changes with the main character shifting from Joe Biden to VP Kamala Harris. 

Biden was unceremoniously dumped by the leaders of his party (Nancy Pelosi and former President Obama), and Democrats simply 'annointed' Harris as their new 2024 nominee for Presidential candidate in the upcoming November election without a single primary voter casting a vote for her, unlike 14,500,000 Americans who voted for Biden during the primaries (whose votes were, effectively, ignored and disgarded)...DEMOCRATS' TWISTED VERSION OF DEMOCRACY! 🤔

How is this even legal/constitutional?

Today Ms. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) (another 'old white guy') as her running mate for VP.

Both Harris and Walz are described as extreme, radical, far-left socialist Democrats (and the "most-left wing ticket in U.S. history," as per Florida Governor Ron Desantis), who have to pay influencers and celebrities to promote them on-line or headline their rallies, as outlined in the following articles.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Ms. Harris is also willing to use media deception to win...

Source: ZeroHedge

Who is Tim Walz? Check out these eye-openers...and more here...

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Another point of view on Tim Walz' lies about his military record for personal gain, and the extreme far-left political policies and actions that he's taken over many years, suggests that he is "unqualified for leadership at any level" and is "unfit for political office"...

Source: ZeroHedge

Even Tim Walz' eldest brother had, to put it politely, unflattering things to say about him and does not support his political policies...

Source: ZeroHedge

So, as a warning, it's worth repeating my above reminder, as follows...